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What currency will have the greatest potential in the short term and long term?
There are several trends in the foreign exchange market, indicating that the Norwegian krone (NOK) has the potential dollars in the short and medium term (18-24 months time).

As waves global economic slowdown, economic growth in 2009 becomes a lively U.S. debate and the EU. It will become clear that changes in dollars and euros to be the world's leading currency, or if both are replaced by other currencies in the midst of the long term. S IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) has become a subject of debate whether to play a greater role for the unity of world reserves, and replace USD.

At the moment there seems to be an appetite to buy U.S. debt can be achieved in 24 months time, and give strength to other currencies such as the currencies of China and Japan. We need to look more closely at who is buying that debt and what is the potential for make a profit on these assets in the medium and long term.

G20 leaders have made clear that for now the state of the dollar as the reserve unit remains dominant, but has the idea of creating a new currency reserves based on the SDR have not been entirely discarded. The SDR (Special Drawing Rights), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a set of currencies in the basket, which is another measure of the currency. He has spoken recently to include several currencies in the SDR basket, but when the IMF has not been removed to make the adjustments to the composition of the SDR. Has also been discussed more actively with the gold in the BSC. Once again the IMF in collaboration with the G-20 has not yet adopted a statement on the matter either.

More efficient use of gold reserves and gold and currency foreign system could weaken the SDR, the IMF, who is afraid of this moment.

The trends of various currencies against the crown (NOK) had a distinct development in the years 2008 to March 2009. These trends were offset in time during 2008, but it seems that trends were synchronized in time past, and now it seems that these trends are identical.

The overall picture is that the PPP has won two major currencies like the dollar and the euro during the period August 2008 to date. This reinforcement seems to find a semi-stable at the moment, increasing the value of NOK against EUR and USD substantially.

That image is sustainable or not is a matter we to look in places other than the immediate evolution between these currencies. The Norwegian D held better than most countries in the last six months time and was the only with an expansion in the last quarter of 2008. In addition, Norway has a net export of their national budgets, which is also assisted by its strong currency. However, if the currency strong will to deal with export volumes remains to be seen. Export from Norway is significant oil and gas, and fish. The prices of oil and gas industry has found a semi-stable at the moment, to stabilize the level of budget revenues Norway fishing, could be something else that the EU is the largest fish market, and purchasing power has been severely cut the last six months and appears to remain at least 24 months.

In general, it seems that the PPP will keep their relative level of major currencies for at least 18-24 months time, since the U.S. actively seeking to maintain low due to U.S. need to increase their exports to reduce the budget deficit in the short and long term.

The EU has maintained a different profile in his attempt to rescue the economy of the EU area and not used as collateral package as the U.S. extensive. This has also led the European Central Bank not to cut rates interest as dramatic as the U.S. has.

This can be somewhat reflected in the exchange rate between these two.

It is noted that the trend EUR vs USD is not stable, despite the higher exchange level from 0.64 to 0.75 in August 2008 through March 2009.

The cyclical index between these coins seem to indicate a somewhat volatile element, and macroeconomic factors are to be understood before any trends can be predicted.

That some of the change trends between currencies and large as USD and EUR and NOK on the relationship between the USD and EUR.

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BHD NOK vs

Development from August 2008. During the first three quarters of 2008 had a level of 13.5 pr NOK BD, and increased steadily until mid-October 2008, when stabilized at a level of approximately NOK 18.5 BD pr.

The exchange rate has fluctuated around 18 to 19 NOK pr BD until early March, when it fell to about 17 BHD NOK pr. However, it seems that the PPP is strong enough to maintain a level of around 18-19 HDB in the near future.

It is a capacity of about 3.48% of the NOK against the currency BHD.

USD NOK vs

From USD BHD and is attached to the other, the same image for BHD can be seen in the dollar against the development of Norwegian kroner. A base level of about 5.1 NOK pr .5.5 U.S. dollars there until late August 2008, when it increased steadily to about $ 7.0 NOK pr mid-October 2008, and has been at that level until early March 2009, when he made a small drop of approximately $ 6.5 NOK pr and appeared to strengthen somewhat.

NOK has increased, with about 34.6% between 2008 and today.

NOK vs EUR

Developing a pattern similar to USD vs NOK, but was delayed by a stable level about 8 euros, compared to NOK existed until early September 2008 and steadily climbed to a record in late December 2008 to approximately NOK € 10 pr. He has since declined to a level close to 8.7 EUR 9 pr NOK since then, what appears to be a stable level for the PPP.

Norwegian kroner (NOK) has increased its value against the euro, with nearly 10% from 2008 to the present.

EUR vs USD

Development trend also has macro vs EUR / USD vs NOK NOK, but shows a tendency to pre-cursor in relation to others, such as increasing the level of $ 0.64 € 0.79 pr had started at the end July, early August. This represents approximately two weeks before the other movements have begun.

The record level of about 0.79 USD 0.78 EUR pr is take place in early December, and fell to a low of 0.70 euros local pr USD in mid-December 2008, and began to increase steadily News local, with a peak of 0.79 euros pr USD in early March and then fall back to a level of 0.75, which is in late March. Overall euro has strengthened against the dollar, with nearly 17% since 2008 to stable.

The EUR vs USD has been a tendency for the pre-cursor NOK vs other currencies in 2008, but the trends are harmonized and synchronized as we see today. Therefore, we can not use this trend for more predict the exchange rate between dollars and NOK NOK or relationship to the euro.

The uncertain global economic situation as the financial crisis and global economic waves around the world, it is impossible to make logical predictions when it comes to trends cash and short-medium term future.

However, if housing is considered the economic data available, it appears that the crown (NOK) might be a candidate suitable for purchase in the short and medium term.

However, it is highly unlikely that this small national economy in the world can play a role important in the long term.

The availability of resources for primary consumption in the future a greater role in terms of monetary terms.

As shown so far that the oil and gas resource dependencies and control to decide how much money is being evaluated.

Future water and some agricultural resources could play a greater role in how the money is worth and confidence.

What is a valid point to consider is whether the U.S. currency in world should use the future as the role of U.S. economic leadership been questioned in the past 12 months.

There are discussions whether the SDR is used more Global Fund to stabilize the long term.

Add to the mix is the political dependence of a nation or region to another, complicating the assessment currencies. For now he is agitated movements in the currencies of control, which is almost on the brink of war for world currencies. protectionist tendencies to protect their own industries export may also come more into play in this regard.

To provide background and understanding of the CDS, including a brief summary of SDR in this article.

The SDR is defined in terms of a basket of major currencies used in trade and international finance. Today currencies in the basket, by weight, the U.S. dollar, euro, Japanese yen and pound sterling. The amounts of each currency is one SDR are chosen based on the relative importance currency in trade and international finance. The determination of the currencies in the SDR basket and quantity is made by the IMF Executive Board every five years.

At present the membership valid for the period 2006-2010 is as follows;

USD – 44%

EUR – 34%

Yen – 11%

GBP – 11%

These relationships have been more or less stable since the introduction of SDR in 1981.

There are two advantages and disadvantages the use of SDR as world reserve currency, but we will not discuss these here.

RDS compared euros, euros and Norwegian krone

As you can see, the euro and major currencies USD SDR makes it stable against these two currencies. But as seen in relation to the NOK, the same trend for both dollars and euros separately even repeated in the TSD, an increase of NOK against the SDR value in late August, early September 2008. DTS NOK plastered around March 9, 2009.

About the Author

He has a background as civil engineer and geoscientist. He has worked mainly within the oil and gas industry from the mid 1980s. He has written a few fictional novels as well as being the author of some professional litterature within oil and gas sector, he is now an editor of some web sites.

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